Andy Burnham’s expected return to Parliament has sparked fresh questions over whether Labour would perform better under his leadership than Sir Keir Starmer. The Greater Manchester mayor moved a step closer to a Commons comeback after Labour’s National Executive Committee approved his bid to stand in the upcoming Makerfield by-election.

If elected, Mr Burnham is widely expected to launch a leadership challenge as pressure continues to mount on Sir Keir following Labour’s disastrous local election results and plunging poll ratings. The by-election itself is shaping up to be a major political test. Although Makerfield has traditionally been a safe Labour seat, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK made major gains in the constituency during recent local elections, winning every council ward and taking roughly half the vote.

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However, Labour insiders believe Mr Burnham’s personal popularity in the North West could prove decisive. Polling by Ipsos gave him a net favourability rating far higher than Labour itself or any of the main party leaders.

A Survation forecast also suggested Labour would be more likely to hold Makerfield with Mr Burnham as candidate than without him.

The growing speculation comes amid deepening uncertainty over Sir Keir’s future after the resignation of Wes Streetingand rising unrest among Labour MPs.

Supporters argue Mr Burnham’s northern roots, media profile and outspoken style could reconnect Labour with disillusioned voters who have drifted towards Reform UK. Critics, however, warn a bruising leadership battle could further destabilise the Government.

With Labour increasingly divided over who should lead the party into the next election, the debate over Mr Burnham’s future is only intensifying.