
Latest figures confirm what a disaster she's been. Her policy of taxing, spending borrowing to the max has blown up in her face. In fact, it’s blown up in all of our faces. Reeves convinced herself she could restore stability and deliver growth by punishing wealth creation. She began her tenure by warning us of a brutal Budget to come, instantly trashing economic sentiment and sending tens of thousands of wealthy taxpayers fleeing abroad. Now the bill has landed. It will destroy what's left of her reputation for good. It’s only a matter of time.
Despite hammering taxpayers harder than ever, Reeves still can’t balance the books. HMRC collected a staggering £87.3billion in April, up £6.3billion on a year earlier. Yet the monthly deficit still hit £24.3billion, billions more than forecast. It's the worst opening to a financial year since the Covid pandemic was at its height. Even the official forecasters underestimated how fast the hole is widening.
Reeves has already squeezed workers, businesses, investors, landlords and savers. She’s frozen tax thresholds, hiked employers’ National Insurance, expanded inheritance tax and borrowed on an industrial scale. Yet Britain’s finances still deteriorate by the month. The more she taxes, the less growth she gets. The less growth she gets, the more she borrows. It’s a vicious cycle and now she’s slammed straight into a brick wall.
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Her number isn’t just up economically. It’s up politically too. Reeves reached No 11 thanks entirely to Keir Starmer. During the election campaign they presented themselves as an inseparable duo, joined at the hip politically and economically. Everybody always assumed that if Starmer fell, Reeves would come tumbling after.
That moment may be approaching fast. If Andy Burnham wins a seat in Westminster in the Makerfield by-election on 18 June, he’ll be swept into No 10 by desperate Labour MPs. Starmer knows it too. He's scrambling to carve out some kind of legacy before the curtain comes down.
Reeves is grimly battling for her job. There's a slim chance Burnham could keep her in place temporarily to reassure the bond markets, who now bizarrely see her as the safest pair of hands Labour can offer.
That says everything about today’s Labour Party. Reeves now counts as the moderate option because everyone else, including Burnham, would tax, borrow and spend even more than her. But Reeves’s economic failures are piling up too quickly now. The reckoning is getting closer by the day. She’s left Britain dangerously exposed just as the global outlook darkens.
The OECD has warned that the UK is the advanced G20 economy most vulnerable to Iran crisis. Thanks to Reeves, business activity has slumped to a one-year low. Job vacancies are at a five-year low too. Britain simply isn’t prepared for another inflation shock.
Donald Trump talks optimistically about peace deals and reopening supply routes, but there’s no guarantee of any lasting breakthrough. Oil shortages are set to hammer global markets and send UK borrowing costs soaring again. That would completely obliterate Reeves’s fiscal rules.
If Burnham does replace her, he’ll inherit a nightmare of her making. Britain can't tax more, the IMF says. We can't borrow more, with gilt yields already the highest this century. Yet the Labour left won’t tolerate spending cuts.
So Reeves leaves behind the worst possible inheritance. No growth. No money. No fiscal headroom. No easy escape route. She’ll vanish into political obscurity claiming she restored stability. The truth is she’s left Britain staring into economic oblivion. And it could blow Andy Burnham away before he's even begun.