Reform cannot lose the summer showdown of the Makerfield by-election. Not because all will be lost if Andy Burnham triumphs but, in the end, Reform is in the ultimate win-win situation. Should the Manchester mayor triumph, it will catalyse the end of the Starmer premiership, and usher in a high tax and spend bonanza which will spook the markets, slam the brakes on economic growth, catalyse austerity measures, anger the Labour benches, and force an early election. Which Reform is set to win!
Should Burnham lose, his entire hook of being able to defeat Reform – in spite of Labour's awful polling – will be shattered. Whether Starmer lives to fight another day, or Wes Streeting, or 'Red Ange' Rayner take over from the flailing PM, Labour's death spiral will simply rumble on. Starmer may well call time early regardless.
Granted, a Burnham win in Makerfield would be a temporary boost for himself and Labour. Even Reform knows Burnham had more favourable ratings against Farage in recent polling. But that star would dim and fade once his Corbyn Lite agenda began in earnest, and the UK's economy slowed further still.
Burnham is as unprepared as Liz Truss was, which is why the outcome could be the same if not worse. Plus if Burnham or Streeting think rejoining the geriatric EU will solve anything they need their bumps feeling. Even under Sir Keir, the UK outpaces Western European economies, and – lest we need reminding – Brexit was botched by the toxic Tories.
If Burnham has any plan, it is what he terms “Manchesterism”, an interventionist state prioritising public ownership and devolution. Based on results from Up North, this would be less Singapore 2026 and more Callaghan's Britain circa 1978. Would you really trust Team Burnham to turn our ailing ship around? And that's before we get to ongoing issues with mass migration, overstretched resources and out of control crime.
The last thing Britain needs is more fiscal recklessness and head-in-the-sand leaders doing diddly squat about our border and our safety! Ultimately, if the stakes in Gorton and Denton were sky high, the stakes in Makerfield will be stratospheric.
Nigel Farage will be hoping he can build on Reform's stellar local election results and post-election poll bounce. Burnham meanwhile sees this as his chance to sock it to Farage and Starmer.
Perversely, Starmer is likely secretly praying for a Reform victory. Let the summer showdown begin.
