Urgent flight warning as UK faces jet fuel rationing this summer

Travel

2026-05-05 03:34:00 20 Views 05 Comment

An airplane is depicted taking off in a cloudy sky, with a silhouetted figure standing on a grassy field below, capturing the es

LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 28: Planes come into land at Heathrow airport on January 28, 2025 in London, England. A controversial plan to expand Heathrow airport with a third runway is expected to receive government support, as part of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' plans to boost growth in the economic sector. The expansion plans have long been met with opposition by environmental and local groups, citing issues such as carbon emissions and noise pollution, but proponents of the additional runway say the increased capacity would create jobs and benefit the UK economy overall. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images) (Image: Getty Images)

Britain faces the threat of jet fuel rationing due to shortages arising from the Iran conflict, an expert has warned.

With supplies potentially falling to "critically low levels", alarm has mounted over Europe's jet fuel market and the knock-on effects this could have on travel this summer. Carriers including KLM and Lufthansa have already grounded flights amid concerns over fuel availability.

Now, Goldman Sachs, one of the world's most powerful investment banks, has warned that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created "extreme tightness" in the market, with the UK particularly vulnerable owing to its limited stockpiles, heavy dependence on imports, and restricted refining capacity. As a result, rationing is believed to be under consideration as a means of sustaining the travel industry.

Jet fuel prices have doubled since hostilities broke out on February 28, prompting stark warnings from Keir Starmer that holidaymakers may need to reconsider their travel plans.

An image depicts two large cargo vessels navigating through a body of water. The vessel in the foreground is significantly large

Oil tankers sit at anchor offshore in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Saturday, May 2, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP) (Image: AP)

Goldman Sachs said in a research note: "The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer. As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures." The Gulf region accounts for approximately one-fifth of globally traded fuel, and with Europe heavily reliant on those supplies, airlines are now vying for alternative sources - pushing prices up further.

According to The Times, Goldman Sachs highlighted that the UK, as Europe's biggest net importer of jet fuel, has no strategic reserves and depends chiefly on commercial stockpiles as a cushion. Those levels, particularly in Britain, risk dropping perilously low, raising the prospect of rationing.

Any prolonged shortage would probably compel airlines to axe or merge flights while driving ticket costs upward. Fuel represents as much as a quarter of airline operating expenses. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, has already signalled it will increase fares to counter higher fuel costs, admitting it is "not immune" to continuing volatility despite hedging measures.

Air France expects its jet fuel bill to climb by $2.4billion (£1.77million) this year, while American Airlines anticipates a rise of more than $4billion (£2.96million) - expenses that are projected to result in higher fares and fewer perks for passengers.

An individual in formal attire, including a dark suit, white shirt, and tie, stands in front of a backdrop featuring a flag. The

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives a statement at 10 Downing Street in central London on April 30, 2026, to update on the government's response to the stabbing of two Jewish men the day before. Starmer was earlier booed and heckled with shouts of "Jew harmer" on April 30 as the Jewish community in London accused him of doing too little to protect them, a day after a knife attack. (Photo by Jack Taylor / POOL / AFP via Getty Images) (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

While UK ministers have suggested supplies can be obtained from elsewhere, industry leaders are less confident. Ryanair chief Michael O'Leary said airlines are "desperately" searching for flights to cancel and could start doing so within weeks. Fuel suppliers have also cautioned that the UK has the "most limited visibility" across Europe regarding jet fuel supply, primarily due to its reliance on Middle Eastern imports.

The European Commission confirmed it would publish guidance to airlines this week, with a spokesperson acknowledging that uncertainty remains elevated and preparations are under way for multiple scenarios.

Analysts also highlighted the UK's diminished refining capacity following the closure of the Grangemouth refinery - Scotland's only oil refinery - last April. Questions had also been raised about the future of the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, though its new owner, Phillips 66, stated the recent acquisition should help stabilise supply.

A report from the Tony Blair Institute contended that Europe's climate-focused energy policies have driven up prices - two to three times those of competitors - and heightened dependence on imports.

Fuel suppliers indicated May demand should remain manageable but cautioned that disruptions could commence by mid-to-late June if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

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