Russia could be ready to start a conflict with NATO within a year of the war in Ukraine coming to an end, with the aim of creating political division in the alliance, according to Dutch military intelligence service MIVD. The spy agency said Moscow could rebuild enough combat power within a year of the fighting ending in Ukraine to mount a regional challenge to NATO under the most favourable conditions for the Kremlin.
However, the MIVD stressed that a conventional war between Russia and NATO is "virtually out of the question" while Moscow remains heavily involved in Ukraine. Rather than seeking to defeat the alliance outright, the report warned that Russia could instead attempt limited territorial gains in an effort to expose divisions between NATO members.The intelligence agency said this could even involve the threat of nuclear weapons use. The annual report described Russia as the most serious threat facing Europe. MIVD Director Vice Adm. Peter Reesink said: "Russia poses the greatest and most direct threat to peace and stability in Europe, and thus to our national security and our interests."
The report said the war in Ukraine is part of a wider Russian effort to reshape Europe's security order and create a more multipolar world in which Moscow is one of the leading powers.
According to the MIVD, Russia sees liberal democratic values as a threat to the Kremlin's internal stability, giving the conflict in Ukraine an "existential" character.
The report warned that many of the safeguards which existed during the Cold War, including arms control agreements and structured dialogue between rival powers, have largely disappeared.
It added that Russia's use of methods below the level of open warfare, including cyberattacks, sabotage and covert activity, creates "a real risk of unintended and therefore difficult-to-control escalation."
The MIVD also said uncertainty surrounding American security policy could influence Moscow's calculations.
Despite suffering heavy losses in Ukraine, the report said Russia has continued to expand its armed forces by recruiting and training more personnel, increasing weapons production and building up ammunition stockpiles.
The agency estimated that Russia has suffered around 1.2 million permanent casualties since 2022, including more than 500,000 deaths.
Even so, it warned that Russian forces have become more effective during the war.
The report said: "The Russian armed forces have not only grown larger but have also become more effective than before the war in Ukraine."
According to the MIVD, Russia has improved significantly in areas including drones, battlefield command systems and the ability to quickly adapt lessons learned from combat in Ukraine.
The report also highlighted concern over Russia's increasingly close relationship with China.
It said Beijing has intensified military cooperation with Moscow and that Chinese cyber capabilities are now likely on par with those of the United States.
Vice Adm. Reesink said China's cyber operations are "very capable, and they are organised in a very complex way", adding "we are vulnerable and we're not always capable of seeing all the threats China produces."
The MIVD also warned of a new nuclear arms race driven by China's expanding nuclear arsenal, weakening arms control measures and rapid advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
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